First off congratulations to Randy Johnson winning his 300th career game.
I don't have to go on about the accolades that Johnson has enjoyed in his career. He's a Hall of Fame pitcher, and the most dominating left handed pitcher the game has seen since Steve Carlton.
Time will tell if he will be the last to do it, but I think somebody else will eventually reach the milestone, but here are the top 5 guys I think have a shot at it.
1. Johan Santana career wins 116, age 30. He plays on a good team, and has very little injury issues. The last time he didn't win at least 15 in a season was back in 2003, and he is always in the conversation when discussing who the best pitcher in baseball is.
2. Roy Halladay career wins 140, age 32. He's a little behind the pace, but Halladay is without question the most durable starter in the game today. In addition to that he's also pretty good. If he can have another 4 or 5 years like he's having this year he should reach 300.
3. C.C. Sabathia career wins 122, age 28. Much like Halladay a very durable starter, which has accounted for the majority of his wins, and he had a very young start breaking into the bigs at the age of 20. I don't think he's as good as Santana or Halladay are, but he is a workhorse and a damn good pitcher, so reaching 300 for him isn't out of the question.
4. Tim Lincecum career wins 29, age 25. The youngest player on this list, Lincecum reminds me alot of a young Tom Seaver. The best motion of anyone in the game in my opinion, and I think he's even a better pitcher this year then last year, even though some of his stats aren't showing it. Lincecum is a good who could easily go into his 40's with that delivery, and would be my first choice as a pitcher if I were starting a team today.
5. Andy Pettite career wins 220, age 37. He would have to go well into his 40's to do it, but Pettite shows very little signs of slowing down and on a team like the Yankees it's not of the question to think he could win at least 15 games a year for 5 more seasons. It's a bit of a long shot, but Pettite definately has a chance in my opinion.
Other notables Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, and Clayton Kershaw.
Out of the 10 I mentioned, I think at least 2 will reach 300 before their careers are over.
Biggest issue I think are two things.
1. Most pitchers don't know how to actually pitch, they just know how to throw really hard.
Below is a tribute video of Tom Seaver. Just fast forward to the 35 second mark to see his windup.
I can count the number of pitchers on one hand who even have a motion half that good.
2. Way too much is expected out of pitchers in little league. There's a saying that the coaches son always pitches, but the coaches son may be pitching way too much. Kids under the age of 16 have no business throwing a curve ball. A 12 year old's arm simply can't handle the stress, yet it's encouraged by many of these coaches who honestly don't know what their doing, so by the time these kids reach high school, their arms are shot.
Pmoe great post I don't think there is going to be a 300 win pitcher for sometime, I'm going to say not another one for about thirty years, maybe even longer than that. C.C. has the best shot he needs to win 18 wins over the next ten years, I don't see that happening because he's only done that once in his career.
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More guys are going to pitch into their 40's then people think.
The number one thing a pitcher has to keep strong other then their arms are their legs.
Also medical techniques especially in the sports field because of the money these guys make are getting better every day.
If they can re engineer tissue growth, it's going to turn alot of season and career ending injuries like ACL tears into month long injuries.
Also guys keep themselves in shape year round. That's something that's only started in the last 20 years.
Granted there aren't going to be as many 300 games winners as their used to be, but I still think there are going to be at least a couple of active players who will reach 300.
if i were to choose a pitcher to eclipse the 300 win mark out of the people you listed p-moe, i wouldgo halladay. he has shown for years that he is the best pitcher in baseball, and he has stayed healthy for the most part. if that continues i think he has a shot at 300
I'm not that big on Zambrano just because I don't think he puts as much work in as he should.
His stats have gotten progressively worse every year since 2004.
In 2004 you could have made the argument that he was one of the top 5 best pitchers in the game.
Now I'm not sure I would even put him in the top 20.
If he actually spent time working on his game to get back to his '04 form I could see it happening but at the rate he's going, he'll but virtually finished by the time he reaches his early 30's.
The guy I'm surprised who doesn't get talked about more is Andy Pettitte. If he can get two or three more 15 win seasons which is very doable, he'll be entering his 40's needing to win about 40-50 more games.
There have been pitchers not nearly as good as Pettitte that have done it, and I think it's something very doable for Andy if he can stay healthy.
As I stated before I think that's what's going to keep 300 game winners around. If you can pitch into your 40's and still be decent well know instead of having to win 15 games a year for 20 years, you only need to win 13 games a year for about 23 years.
I don't think there are too many if any guys capable of winning 15 year in and year out for 20 years, but 13 games a year for 23 seasons is something I can see at least a couple of pitchers doing.
A 13 game winner is an above average starter typically, sometimes even bad starting pitchers on good teams can win 13.
I think there are at least 2 active pitchers that can do it.
Steven Jamie Moyer is 50 wins away he has no shot at it then the next cloeset is Andy Pettite and they are 220 so it's going to be very long for another pitcher to get 300 wins.
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Moyer won't get to 300.If anyone will i think it will be Halladay also but i think if Clayton Kershaw really gets his stuff going quick watch out for him
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But I dont understand what youre sayin bout Big Z. His stats have gotta slightly worse since 04 but they are still very good and consistent on a yearly basis. He became a full-time starter in 2003 and won 13 games. Every year since then hes won atleast 14 games. And what the hell are u talking about his work-ethic for? You have no idea what he does behind the scenes. Yea he had a problem with cramps cause he was drinkin a lot of red bulls and coffee. But Dustin Pedroia has gone on the record of saying he drinks about 5 or 6 red bulls a day and nobody questions his work ethic.
And I would like to know what your list of top 20 pitchers looks like. Because if you dont have Z on the list, then you must not have a lot of other really good pitchers on it.
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The Cubbies got me, got me questioning, where are the runs??
I'm not denying the guy doesn't have talent, but I think he's out of shape, and I don't care who you are or how much natural talent you have, if you aren't in shape, you will not last long at the Major League level.
Also nobody questions Pedroia's work ethic because he doesn't have a gut on him, and he just won the AL MVP.
Granted that Zambrano is a big guy naturally and will probably always be at least somewhat heavy
As for 20 pitchers better then Zambrano, I'll give it a shot.
(In no particular order)
Guys who are in my view without question better then Zambrano is right now.
1. Johan Santana 2. Roy Halladay 3. C.C. Sabathia 4. Tim Lincecum 5. Cole Hamels 6. Zack Greinke 7. Cliff Lee 8. Ryan Dempster 9. Brandon Webb 10. Danny Haren 11. Derek Lowe 12. Ted Lilly 13. James Shields 14. Josh Beckett 15. Matt Cain 16. Chad Billingsley 17. Jake Peavy
So yeah in my view he's borderline top 20 at best right now.
He also said in an interview after the game that he is planning on retiring as soon as he contract with the Cubs expires, which will be in 2012, so maybe that's the reason for him not putting in as much work in the gym as he probably should.
Pmoe so is David Well's and he had a very nice career. Another pitcher that could slim down is Felix Hernadez. He's a prodigy he's been compared to some good names in the MLB, and he's been winning games for the Mariners. This guy is out of shape so he should probaly lose that wait so he can get bettter stamina.
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I think that Jimmy Hendrix was the best guitarist in the world
I mean it's always possible that Zambrano might get to 300 yes but he needs to keep his temper down and not get suspended for stupid **** and end up missing a start. Yes they can just move him back but still he's missing a start somewhere down the line.
And watch out for Felix Hernandez this kids young and has a loing carrer ahead of him so he could always get there to. He just needs out of Seattle to a team who can give him run support.
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So by your list Zambrano is the 4th best pitcher on his own team?? You could make an argument right now for Lilly because he's having a hell of a season. But what I dont understand is how you have Zach Greinke up that high. He's having one good season.
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The Cubbies got me, got me questioning, where are the runs??
He has an ERA of 1.55, and is a definite Cy Young candidate.
You could make a very solid argument that he is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and juding from the stuff this guy has, I don't think this one good season is a fluke.
As far as Zambrano being the 4th best pitcher on his team, Harden when healthy is better then Zambrano, Lilly is having a better season, and Dempster was a 17 game winner last year although he hasn't done quite as well this year thus far, so yeah you could make the argument Zambrano is 4th.
Personally I'd put him at 3rd, becuase I do think he is better then Rich Harden. I merely pointed out that you could make the argument Harden was the better pitcher.
I'm not that convinced that Felix Hernandez can stay healthy long term, because he has had some injury problems in the past, granted none of them have been major, but he's worth mentioning as a possible 300 game winner I'd say.
David Wells was an anomoly plain and simple. Runelvys Hernandez wasn't though, and he wound up literally eating himself out of the bigs.
Felix Hernandez has a chance to get to 275 and thats about it, he doesn't have a chance to get to 300 because pitchers now have no chance at 300 because now pitchers can only go six to seven innings, not like way back in the day where pitchers had the stamina to go a complete game. Teams now have one inninng specialists.
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I think that Jimmy Hendrix was the best guitarist in the world
Exactly, Greinke is having one good season so far. it's still early. The first half of the season last year everyone was talkin about josh hamilton being a lock for the MVP. Then he dropped off in the second half. Big Z is a proven starter. And he has a no-no.
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The Cubbies got me, got me questioning, where are the runs??
Yeah i mean we've seen guys have steller starts then suck down the end.
Got to give a that a boy to Jon Lester for his steller start taking the perfect game into the seventh pitchinga Cg with 11 more K's after 12 in his last start
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